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The threat of violence and illicit crops can lead producers to abandon coffee as a long-term crop, but the coffee institutions are a powerful buffer that reduces these risks, a study reveals.


According to a recent study by the University of Los Andes in Colombia and the Université Libre of Brussels, Belgium, under the threat of violence and illicit crops, farmers tend to prefer subsistence crops or those that generate immediate income, to the detriment of long-term crops such as coffee.

But strong institutions such as the Colombian Coffee Growers Federation (FNC), whose technical arm is the Extension Service, help mitigate these effects of violence and illicit crops and help growers not to abandon coffee farming, highlights the professor-researcher Ana Maria Ibáñez, co-author of the study.

“We found that extensionists help producers not to abandon coffee growing nor face lower production if they decide to continue with coffee,” said Ibáñez, who is also dean of the Faculty of Economics at the University of Los Andes.

Among the main findings of this broad study (“Abandoning coffee under the threat of violence and the presence of illicit crops. Evidence from Colombia”), one can say that violent contexts generate uncertainty and change relative prices. “It’s more likely for growers to drop out of coffee when they are exposed to high risk of violence and the presence of illegal crops,” reads the document.

“We find a significant impact of the risk of violence and the presence of illicit crops in the decision to continue coffee farming and in the percentage of the land allocated to coffee,” the study elaborates.

Rural households modify production decisions to protect consumption against the incidence of shocks. They move to assets less sensible to particular risks or that can be easily converted to cash, although less profitable.

The risk of violence may also discourage producers from investments that would increase productivity of crops, but cannot be easily converted to cash.

“Besides changing investment or input decisions, households adjust their production decisions favoring less risky crops, subsistence production, or cash-generating activities,” the document says.

Diversifying income sources, by allocating time to off-farm activities, is another strategy to reduce risks. So farmers modify their behavior to protect their well-being in anticipation of or in response to violent shocks.

Many findings of the study apply to other agricultural sectors of Colombia and other countries, although the document has been prepared with coffee farming as a starting point.

For the coffee sector in particular, it is worth noting how the FNC mitigates adverse effects of violence. “The technical assistance provided by the FNC seems to be a strong incentive to continue coffee production,” the document says.

Ibáñez emphasizes that, “Coffee is the main commodity in Colombia and other producing countries also have a conflict, but they do not have the institutional framework of the FNC. We wanted to contrast how the FNC may be a protective mechanism for producers.”

It is also worth highlighting the robust database that the FNC has been consolidating from censuses, surveys and updates that were used as input for the Coffee Information System (SICA), the country’s most comprehensive georeferenced information system. This information made undertaking the study itself easier.

“The FNC manages crucial data, which is precisely the SICA and all the censuses they have carried out, which don’t exist for any other agricultural product – and I would say in very few countries in conflict. They have very rigorous data to undertake a study like this,” the professor and researcher notes.

On the other hand, international donors for peace projects such as “Huellas de Paz” (Footprints of Peace) or “Colombia Cafetera Sostenible (Sustainable Coffee-Growing Colombia)” have recognized that the FNC is a great partner for such initiatives, as peace requires a comprehensive inter-institutional effort from different agents, including the police and local, regional and national authorities.